Will the Vikings Benefit from J.J. McCarthy’s Rookie Contract?

In the 2024 offseason, former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and current Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy both signed four-year contracts. The former is worth $180 million, the latter less than $22 million. 

This difference in magnitude is a consequence of the rookie wage scale instituted by the NFL in 2011 to help curb the inflation of rookie salaries. In recent years, it’s become a bit of a cliche to say that a quarterback on a rookie contract is the key to Super Bowl success, allowing a team like the Vikings four years of team control over a top QB prospect like McCarthy at a price that is well below market rate.

In practice, however, it is difficult to find evidence that an inexpensive QB is really the golden ticket to NFL success. Indeed, many of the QBs who saw success on rookie contracts (Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc.) have continued their winning ways even after their rookie contracts ended, suggesting that the play of the QB—not the pay of the QB—is the main reason for their success.

Does that mean that the Vikings should sign an established veteran rather than handing the reins to an unproven QB like McCarthy? Not necessarily. Here are three reasons why the rookie QB contract advantage isn’t as big as it might seem at first, and three reasons why a shift to McCarthy is still a good move for the Vikings:

Against

1) Rookie QBs save cap dollars, but they cost draft picks

Cousins cost the Vikings a lot of cap space during his six years in purple, but he also saved the team from having to use more than an occasional mid/late-round pick on the QB position. In contrast, in the 2024 draft, the Vikings traded three draft picks—11, 129, and 157—to acquire McCarthy and pick number 203 (which eventually became kicker Will Reichard).

If the Vikings had chosen to use those draft picks on non-QBs, they would have lost the benefit of a QB on a rookie contract, but they would have gained the benefits of multiple non-QBs on rookie contracts. Given the skyrocketing QB salaries in today’s NFL, the former is more valuable, but the difference in cap savings is minuscule compared to the difference between a competent QB and an incompetent QB.

2) QBs are underpaid relative to their on-field value

It’s hard to believe that QBs are underpaid when a player like Jordan Love can ink a 4-year, $220 million contract based on one season of above-average play. But this is the reality of the modern NFL, where the QB is by far the most important position on the field.

According to Pro Football Focus’s Wins Above Replacement statistic, an elite QB is worth about 4-5 times as much as a top non-QB, yet their salaries are less than twice as large. This suggests that a penny-pinching general manager ought to look elsewhere to save cap dollars: the QB position is important enough that it is worth spending on.

3) Rookie QBs are often misses

In general, a QB on a rookie contract is only an advantage if they are very skilled at the QB position—as the Vikings have seen over the past two seasons, it is not hard to find discount veteran QBs like Josh Dobbs or Sam Darnold. And most rookie QBs—even those drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft—won’t turn out to be a significant improvement over a QB like 2018-2023 Cousins or 2024 Darnold.

For

1) The high end of variance

The smart money says that McCarthy will never be as good of a QB as Cousins in his prime. But at the same time, an established, aging veteran like Cousins is very unlikely to take the step from “solid QB” to “elite QB.” A top QB prospect comes with a chance—albeit small—of transcendent, Hall-of-Fame level talent.

2) Age and upside

JJ McCarthy was just 21 when he was drafted by the Vikings. In general, players drafted younger tend to become better as they have more room to grow and improve. NFL history suggests that the prime age for an NFL QB is around 26 or 27, so McCarthy will likely be reaching his peak just as his rookie contract expires.

3) A lack of clearly better options

It would be great if there were a “sure thing” out there at QB for the Vikings this offseason, but unfortunately, all of the truly “sure things” are securely under contract with other teams.

There is no guarantee that a 1-year wonder like Sam Darnold will continue to perform the way he did in 2024, and there is no guarantee that an aging veteran like Matthew Stafford will be able to maintain his current level of play. All indications are that the Vikings love McCarthy and view him as their QB of the future, and now is as good a time as any to give him the ball.